受通货膨胀或通货紧缩影响情境下的经济可持续性理论

摘要

本文旨在考察当发展路径背离了对自然影响极小的恒定而有节制的增长轨道之后，所出现的困境与异常问题。因为任何替代方案实际上都是徒劳的：这种替代方案事实上就是坠入所谓的“亚世界”，在其中恒定的发展路线被经济周期所裹挟，并表现为受通货膨胀或通货紧缩的支配。然而，“祸兮福之所倚”。亚世界的这些异常现象绝非攻击性的工具，而毋宁是一种治疗手段——只要我们不笨拙地阻挠其显现。因此，对这些异常现象（首先是通货膨胀与通货紧缩）的任何抵抗，都可能要为其滞留于经济场景之中所造成的日益加深的病痛负责。所以，不愿承受为走出亚世界所必须付出的代价，正是上世纪六七十年代困扰世界长达二十年之久的通货膨胀的成因。更糟糕的是，恶性通货膨胀占据了经济舞台，而人们随后又试图以货币流通量的异常增加来对抗通货膨胀。通货膨胀与通货紧缩都是需要付出牺牲（休养期）才能摆脱货币病痛的治疗手段。即便是通货紧缩这一必须视为危险疾病的现象，若被忽视，也无法通过以超凯恩斯主义手段与增加流动性为基础的惯常“大杂烩”来解决。这不仅不是应对问题的正确方式，而且我们还会严重面临日本式综合征的风险——该国与通货紧缩搏斗了二十年而未获成功。真正能够使我们重返对自然损害最小的恒定增长路径的疗法，恰恰是简单地遵循自然的安排：它要求一次哪怕是艰难的衰退转向，以真正开启问题的解决。因为无论是通货紧缩还是通货膨胀，都是自然发出的信息，警示共同体经济状况正在恶化，必须尽快改变方向，哪怕需要经历一场严重的衰退。

Abstract

This work aims to examine the issue of troubles and anomalies that affect the development path when it has abandoned the regular path of a constant and contained growth with minimal impact on nature. Because any alternative is indeed fruitless; the alternative, in fact, is the fall into the so-called sub-world, in which the constant line of development is caught in the conjuncture cycle and appears taken by inflation or deflation. Nevertheless, ‘every cloud has a silver lining’. Indeed, these anomalies of the sub-world are by no means offensive instruments but rather a kind of cure, if we do not awkwardly oppose their manifestation. Thus, any resistance to these anomalies, starting from inflation and deflation, may then be responsible for the growing malaise produced by their permanence within the economic scenario. Therefore, not accepting the penalties to be paid in order to leave the sub-world was the cause of the twenty-year inflation that afflicted the world during the 60s and 70s of the last century. But worse than that, the hyperinflation has occupied the economic scenario and then attempts were made to fight inflation with an abnormal increase of money circulation. Inflation and deflation are care treatments requiring a sacrifice (convalescence) to be released from monetary malaise. Even deflation, which we must consider a dangerous disease, if neglected cannot be solved through the usual melting pot based on hyper-Keynesian actions and increased liquidity. Not only this isn’t the right way to face the problem, but we seriously risk the syndrome that affected Japan, which has been fighting deflation for twenty years without success. The cure that can put us back on the path of constant growth with minimal damage to nature, is instead to simply follow the natural settings that ask for a recessionary turn, even hard, to really start the solution. Because both deflation and inflation are natural messages that warn the community that things in the economy are going badly and a direction change is needed soon, even going through a severe recession. The community is the referent of natural world on the issue of life survival on the planet and a good government should listen to its community, without looking for alternative and wrong escape routes.